Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or higher on November 11?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 97¢ · $142 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$142.04
-$0.19
98.9¢ → 97.4¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-29 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $67.51 | $66.13 | -$1.38 | 35% 2930-5331 (8261) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $40.65 | $40.3 | -$0.35 | 50% 274-269 (543) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $19.76 | $19.52 | -$0.24 | 52% 5344-4847 (10191) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $6.17 | $6.04 | -$0.13 | 29% 2470-6157 (8627) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $5.03 | $4.93 | -$0.1 | 33% 218-446 (664) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $1.36 | $3.74 | +$2.38 | 25% 170-523 (693) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $1.75 | $1.38 | -$0.38 | 85% 448-79 (527) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$67.51
Value
$66.13
PnL
-$1.38
Record
35%
2930-5331 (8261)
Invested
$40.65
Value
$40.3
PnL
-$0.35
Record
50%
274-269 (543)
Invested
$19.76
Value
$19.52
PnL
-$0.24
Record
52%
5344-4847 (10191)
Invested
$6.17
Value
$6.04
PnL
-$0.13
Record
29%
2470-6157 (8627)
Invested
$5.03
Value
$4.93
PnL
-$0.1
Record
33%
218-446 (664)
Invested
$1.36
Value
$3.74
PnL
+$2.38
Record
25%
170-523 (693)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$1.38
PnL
-$0.38
Record
85%
448-79 (527)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.