Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on November 11?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 83¢ · $138 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$137.51
$11.45
93.4¢ → 83.3¢
-11% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 94.1¢ | $45.2 | $43.33 | -$1.87 | 35% 2930-5331 (8261) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $36.27 | $32.3 | -$3.97 | 50% 274-269 (543) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | $10.94 | $30.36 | +$19.42 | 25% 170-523 (693) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $18.7 | $18.04 | -$0.66 | 52% 5344-4847 (10191) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 92.6¢ | $5.75 | $5.14 | -$0.61 | 29% 2470-6157 (8627) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $4.56 | $4.19 | -$0.37 | 85% 448-79 (527) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 92.6¢ | $4.63 | $4.14 | -$0.49 | 38% 1203-1982 (3185) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$45.2
Value
$43.33
PnL
-$1.87
Record
35%
2930-5331 (8261)
Invested
$36.27
Value
$32.3
PnL
-$3.97
Record
50%
274-269 (543)
Invested
$10.94
Value
$30.36
PnL
+$19.42
Record
25%
170-523 (693)
Invested
$18.7
Value
$18.04
PnL
-$0.66
Record
52%
5344-4847 (10191)
Invested
$5.75
Value
$5.14
PnL
-$0.61
Record
29%
2470-6157 (8627)
Invested
$4.56
Value
$4.19
PnL
-$0.37
Record
85%
448-79 (527)
Invested
$4.63
Value
$4.14
PnL
-$0.49
Record
38%
1203-1982 (3185)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.