Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on November 11?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 86¢ · $159 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$158.9
-$0.92
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $89.84 | $78.65 | -$11.2 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 83¢ | $53.95 | $55.9 | +$1.95 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 18.9¢ | $35.89 | $22.75 | -$13.15 | |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 86.8¢ | $41.68 | $41.28 | -$0.4 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $17.4 | $17.2 | -$0.2 | 52% 5322-4827 (10149) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $12.41 | $12.26 | -$0.14 | 85% 441-76 (517) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $9.68 | $9.5 | -$0.18 | 51% 265-255 (520) |
Invested
$89.84
Value
$78.65
PnL
-$11.2
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
Both legs:
Lucerys<$100Invested
$41.68
Value
$41.28
PnL
-$0.4
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$17.4
Value
$17.2
PnL
-$0.2
Record
52%
5322-4827 (10149)
Invested
$12.41
Value
$12.26
PnL
-$0.14
Record
85%
441-76 (517)
Invested
$9.68
Value
$9.5
PnL
-$0.18
Record
51%
265-255 (520)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.