Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C on November 11?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $528 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$527.65
-$0.34
96.7¢ → 97.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $366.19 | $367.46 | +$1.27 | 25% 170-523 (693) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $66.42 | $65.72 | -$0.69 | 35% 2930-5331 (8261) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $54.52 | $54.32 | -$0.2 | 50% 274-269 (543) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $19.7 | $19.34 | -$0.36 | 52% 5344-4847 (10191) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $10.13 | $9.97 | -$0.15 | 37% 535-912 (1447) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $6.12 | $6 | -$0.11 | 29% 2470-6157 (8627) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $4.92 | $4.83 | -$0.08 | 38% 1203-1982 (3185) |
Invested
$366.19
Value
$367.46
PnL
+$1.27
Record
25%
170-523 (693)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$66.42
Value
$65.72
PnL
-$0.69
Record
35%
2930-5331 (8261)
Invested
$54.52
Value
$54.32
PnL
-$0.2
Record
50%
274-269 (543)
Invested
$19.7
Value
$19.34
PnL
-$0.36
Record
52%
5344-4847 (10191)
Invested
$10.13
Value
$9.97
PnL
-$0.15
Record
37%
535-912 (1447)
Invested
$6.12
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.11
Record
29%
2470-6157 (8627)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$4.83
PnL
-$0.08
Record
38%
1203-1982 (3185)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.