Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 11°C on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $134 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$133.9
$0.83
98.7¢ → 99.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $67.62 | $67.63 | +$0.01 | 35% 2930-5331 (8261) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 95.4¢ | $23.85 | $24.9 | +$1.05 | 25% 170-523 (693) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.92 | -$0.02 | 52% 5344-4847 (10191) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $10.28 | $10.26 | -$0.02 | 32% 205-428 (633) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $6.19 | $6.18 | -$0.01 | 29% 2470-6157 (8627) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $5.2 | $5.02 | -$0.18 | 50% 274-269 (543) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$67.62
Value
$67.63
PnL
+$0.01
Record
35%
2930-5331 (8261)
Invested
$23.85
Value
$24.9
PnL
+$1.05
Record
25%
170-523 (693)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.92
PnL
-$0.02
Record
52%
5344-4847 (10191)
Invested
$10.28
Value
$10.26
PnL
-$0.02
Record
32%
205-428 (633)
Invested
$6.19
Value
$6.18
PnL
-$0.01
Record
29%
2470-6157 (8627)
Invested
$5.2
Value
$5.02
PnL
-$0.18
Record
50%
274-269 (543)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.