Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 10°C on November 11?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $189 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$189.38
$1.27
99.2¢ → 99.9¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $79.6 | $79.92 | +$0.32 | 100% 102-0 (102) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $67.88 | $67.9 | +$0.02 | 35% 2930-5331 (8261) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $19 | $19.98 | +$0.98 | 25% 170-523 (693) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $10.31 | $10.3 | -$0.01 | 40% 187-284 (471) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $6.2 | $6.2 | -$0 | 29% 2470-6157 (8627) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.06 | $5.06 | -$0 | 35% 212-391 (603) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.05 | $0.01 | -$0.03 | 50% 274-269 (543) |
Invested
$79.6
Value
$79.92
PnL
+$0.32
Record
100%
102-0 (102)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$67.88
Value
$67.9
PnL
+$0.02
Record
35%
2930-5331 (8261)
Invested
$19
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.98
Record
25%
170-523 (693)
Invested
$10.31
Value
$10.3
PnL
-$0.01
Record
40%
187-284 (471)
Invested
$6.2
Value
$6.2
PnL
-$0
Record
29%
2470-6157 (8627)
Invested
$5.06
Value
$5.06
PnL
-$0
Record
35%
212-391 (603)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
274-269 (543)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.