Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or higher on November 10?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 89¢ · $440 held · ends Nov 10

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$440.26

Combined PnL

-$3.39

Smart Money Entry

93.6¢ → 88.8¢

-5% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$224.92

Total Shares246

Combined PnL-$3.78

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.65

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.4

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 90.8¢	$209.55	$214.69	+$5.14	21% 132-485 (617)
└ No leg	Noavg 90.8¢	$167	$167.62	+$0.62
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 11.8¢	$42.55	$47.07	+$4.52
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 93¢	$48.6	$47.64	-$0.97	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 90.9¢	$36.34	$36.44	+$0.1	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$30.12	$28.32	-$1.79	30% 174-414 (588)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 88.7¢	$25.97	$26.58	+$0.61	89% 409-53 (462)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 94.9¢	$21.25	$20.4	-$0.86	34% 150-294 (444)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99¢	$19.8	$18.22	-$1.58	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$15.78	$14.58	-$1.21	4% 17-463 (480)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91.7¢	$87.61	$9.6	+$2.27	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$9.32	$9.28	-$0.04	31% 163-361 (524)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 97¢	$5.01	$4.7	-$0.3	80% 140-34 (174)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$4.66	$4.6	-$0.06	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 90.1¢	$4.51	$4.56	+$0.05	35% 138-259 (397)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$0.26	$0.65	+$0.4	57% 56-43 (99)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$209.55

Value

$214.69

PnL

+$5.14

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Both legs:

No$16790.8¢+$0.62

Yes$42.5511.8¢+$4.52

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$48.6

Value

$47.64

PnL

-$0.97

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$36.34

Value

$36.44

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$30.12

Value

$28.32

PnL

-$1.79

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$25.97

Value

$26.58

PnL

+$0.61

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$21.25

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$0.86

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$18.22

PnL

-$1.58

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$15.78

Value

$14.58

PnL

-$1.21

Record

17-463 (480)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$87.61

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$2.27

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$9.32

Value

$9.28

PnL

-$0.04

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$5.01

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$0.3

Record

80%

140-34 (174)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.66

Value

$4.6

PnL

-$0.06

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.51

Value

$4.56

PnL

+$0.05

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$0.4

Record

57%

56-43 (99)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.2%

88.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.