Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on November 10?

4 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 64¢ · $418 held · ends Nov 10

Yes64¢No36¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$418.49

Combined PnL

$13.35

Smart Money Entry

39.8¢ → 64¢

+61% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 15 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$251.04

Total Shares456

Combined PnL+$68.14

No11 traders

Total Value$92.37

Total Shares224

Combined PnL-$54.79

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-48 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Yesavg 40¢	$160.69	$221.1	+$60.41	21% 132-485 (617)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 58.6¢	$60.31	$75.09	+$14.78	89% 409-53 (462)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27¢	$22.02	$48.95	+$26.93
└ No leg	Noavg 58.6¢	$38.29	$26.13	-$12.15
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 39.6¢	$13.65	$18.98	+$5.32	2% 12-662 (674)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 68.9¢	$32.58	$18.92	-$13.66	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 71.7¢	$30.77	$17.16	-$13.61	34% 150-294 (444)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$25	$16	-$9	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 60¢	$13	$10.75	-$2.25	17% 10-48 (58)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 29.1¢	$26.74	$8.21	+$2.76	51% 197-186 (383)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 69¢	$13.8	$8	-$5.8	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 44.9¢	$8.17	$7.29	-$0.89	36% 462-806 (1268)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 73¢	$11.68	$6.4	-$5.28	4% 17-463 (480)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$3.1	$2.75	-$0.35	57% 56-43 (99)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$2.4	$2.34	-$0.06	67% 3785-1901 (5686)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3.89	$2.08	-$1.82	28% 153-400 (553)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3.87	$2.06	-$1.81	80% 140-34 (174)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$2	$1.38	-$0.62	35% 138-259 (397)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$160.69

Value

$221.1

PnL

+$60.41

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$60.31

Value

$75.09

PnL

+$14.78

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

Both legs:

Invested

$13.65

Value

$18.98

PnL

+$5.32

Record

12-662 (674)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$32.58

Value

$18.92

PnL

-$13.66

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$30.77

Value

$17.16

PnL

-$13.61

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$25

Value

$16

PnL

-$9

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$13

Value

$10.75

PnL

-$2.25

Record

17%

10-48 (58)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.74

Value

$8.21

PnL

+$2.76

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

PnL

-$5.8

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$8.17

Value

$7.29

PnL

-$0.89

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$11.68

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$5.28

Record

17-463 (480)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.1

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.35

Record

57%

56-43 (99)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.34

PnL

-$0.06

Record

67%

3785-1901 (5686)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$3.89

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$1.82

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$3.87

Value

$2.06

PnL

-$1.81

Record

80%

140-34 (174)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$0.62

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 15 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-48 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.