Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on November 10?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 65¢ · $268 held · ends Nov 10

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$268.28

Combined PnL

-$13.46

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 65¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$101.02

Total Shares241

Combined PnL-$2.42

No7 traders

Total Value$167.27

Total Shares282

Combined PnL-$11.04

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 40.2¢	$103.08	$96.92	-$6.16	25% 70-207 (277)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 65¢	$96.82	$86.32	-$10.5	4% 8-216 (224)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$31.69	$32.65	+$0.96	86% 152-25 (177)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 62.6¢	$26.71	$25.59	-$1.12	81% 210-50 (260)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 62.3¢	$12.14	$11.69	-$0.55	57% 87-65 (152)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 57¢	$5.08	$4.8	-$0.28	8% 11-126 (137)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.36	$4.1	+$3.74	86% 18-3 (21)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 60¢	$3.1	$3.22	+$0.12	80% 121-30 (151)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 47.5¢	$2.68	$3	+$0.33	63% 1382-820 (2202)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$103.08

Value

$96.92

PnL

-$6.16

Record

25%

70-207 (277)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$96.82

Value

$86.32

PnL

-$10.5

Record

8-216 (224)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$31.69

Value

$32.65

PnL

+$0.96

Record

86%

152-25 (177)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$26.71

Value

$25.59

PnL

-$1.12

Record

81%

210-50 (260)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$12.14

Value

$11.69

PnL

-$0.55

Record

57%

87-65 (152)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$5.08

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$0.28

Record

11-126 (137)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$3.74

Record

86%

18-3 (21)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$3.1

Value

$3.22

PnL

+$0.12

Record

80%

121-30 (151)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$2.68

Value

PnL

+$0.33

Record

63%

1382-820 (2202)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.