Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C on November 10?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $119 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$118.63

Combined PnL

$0.41

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$118.63

Total Shares119

Combined PnL+$0.41

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$52.2	$52.24	+$0.03	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.96	$19.98	+$0.02	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$15.2	$15.21	+$0.02	31% 163-361 (524)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$21.45	$10.84	+$0.31	51% 197-186 (383)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.15	$5.15	+$0.01	80% 140-34 (174)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.11	$5.11	+$0.01	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$5.03	$5.04	+$0.02	30% 174-414 (588)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.04	$5.04	+$0.01	35% 138-259 (397)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$52.2

Value

$52.24

PnL

+$0.03

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.96

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$15.2

Value

$15.21

PnL

+$0.02

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.45

Value

$10.84

PnL

+$0.31

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.01

Record

80%

140-34 (174)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0.01

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.02

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.01

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.