Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 31?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 64¢ · $586 held · ended Oct 31

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$586.49

Combined PnL

-$34.21

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 63.5¢

-10% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$394.4

Total Shares616

Combined PnL-$41.91

Yes1 trader

Total Value$27.93

Total Shares78

Combined PnL+$7.69

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 71¢	$420.86	$379.38	-$41.47	47% 675-754 (1429)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 33.6¢	$81.82	$86.27	+$4.46	59% 1828-1274 (3102)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.6¢	$59.77	$64.08	+$4.31
└ No leg	Noavg 63.6¢	$22.05	$22.19	+$0.15
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 71¢	$80.42	$77.89	-$0.96	20% 318-1310 (1628)
└ No leg	Noavg 71¢	$55.29	$49.85	-$5.65
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30¢	$23.35	$28.04	+$4.69
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.1¢	$20.24	$27.93	+$7.69	50% 1843-1820 (3663)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 65.9¢	$15.45	$15.01	-$0.43	53% 6559-5774 (12333)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$420.86

Value

$379.38

PnL

-$41.47

Record

47%

675-754 (1429)

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.82

Value

$86.27

PnL

+$4.46

Record

59%

1828-1274 (3102)

Both legs:

Yes$59.7733.6¢+$4.31

No$22.0563.6¢+$0.15

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$80.42

Value

$77.89

PnL

-$0.96

Record

20%

318-1310 (1628)

Both legs:

Invested

$20.24

Value

$27.93

PnL

+$7.69

Record

50%

1843-1820 (3663)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$15.45

Value

$15.01

PnL

-$0.43

Record

53%

6559-5774 (12333)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.