Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on October 31?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 72¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$17.18

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 72¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$720.01

Total Shares1,058

Combined PnL+$15.72

Yes2 traders

Total Value$90.09

Total Shares253

Combined PnL+$1.45

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 66.2¢	$596.11	$603.46	+$7.34	47% 628-714 (1342)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 69.2¢	$210	$200	-$8.38	21% 295-1086 (1381)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.2¢	$138.46	$134	-$4.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35¢	$70	$66	-$4
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 64.9¢	$98.02	$88.26	+$8.14	53% 6459-5657 (12116)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 28.4¢	$47.71	$49.56	+$1.85	59% 1714-1183 (2897)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$40.93	$40.53	-$0.4	50% 1747-1730 (3477)
74 0x7495...7fcf<$100	Noavg 63¢	$15.29	$20	+$4.7	18% 525-2348 (2873)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$35.5	$8.29	-$4.47	57% 13509-10335 (23844)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$596.11

Value

$603.46

PnL

+$7.34

Record

47%

628-714 (1342)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$210

Value

$200

PnL

-$8.38

Record

21%

295-1086 (1381)

Both legs:

No$138.4669.2¢-$4.38

Yes$7035¢-$4

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$98.02

Value

$88.26

PnL

+$8.14

Record

53%

6459-5657 (12116)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.71

Value

$49.56

PnL

+$1.85

Record

59%

1714-1183 (2897)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.93

Value

$40.53

PnL

-$0.4

Record

50%

1747-1730 (3477)

0x7495...7fcf<$100

Invested

$15.29

Value

$20

PnL

+$4.7

Record

18%

525-2348 (2873)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$35.5

Value

$8.29

PnL

-$4.47

Record

57%

13509-10335 (23844)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.