Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on October 30?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 84¢ · $272 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$272.2
-$22.01
76.5¢ → 84¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 78.3¢ | $131.93 | $117.89 | -$14.04 | 51% 602-578 (1180) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 75.1¢ | $87.71 | $87 | -$0.34 | 24% 285-919 (1204) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 73.9¢ | $54.78 | $51.89 | -$2.89 | 50% 1694-1679 (3373) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.9¢ | $18.91 | $13.82 | -$5.09 | 60% 1652-1111 (2763) |
74 0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $0.99 | $1.36 | +$0.36 | — |
Invested
$131.93
Value
$117.89
PnL
-$14.04
Record
51%
602-578 (1180)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$87.71
Value
$87
PnL
-$0.34
Record
24%
285-919 (1204)
Invested
$54.78
Value
$51.89
PnL
-$2.89
Record
50%
1694-1679 (3373)
Invested
$18.91
Value
$13.82
PnL
-$5.09
Record
60%
1652-1111 (2763)
Invested
$0.99
Value
$1.36
PnL
+$0.36
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.