Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on October 30?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 85¢ · $722 held · ends Oct 30

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$722.37

Combined PnL

$80.14

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 84.5¢

+19% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$567.91

Total Shares661

Combined PnL+$92.53

Yes1 trader

Total Value$51.69

Total Shares369

Combined PnL-$12.39

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 66.3¢	$277.31	$359.55	+$82.25	50% 1752-1734 (3486)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 80.1¢	$174.86	$183.59	+$8.73	56% 358-287 (645)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 31.3¢	$149.09	$102.77	-$38.61	59% 1723-1189 (2912)
└ No leg	Noavg 79.9¢	$59.34	$62.79	+$3.45
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.3¢	$80.84	$39.98	-$42.06
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.4¢	$64.08	$51.69	-$12.39	51% 623-608 (1231)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75.8¢	$23.21	$24.76	+$1.55	57% 13544-10382 (23926)

hello.67

Invested

$277.31

Value

$359.55

PnL

+$82.25

Record

50%

1752-1734 (3486)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$174.86

Value

$183.59

PnL

+$8.73

Record

56%

358-287 (645)

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$149.09

Value

$102.77

PnL

-$38.61

Record

59%

1723-1189 (2912)

Both legs:

No$59.3479.9¢+$3.45

Yes$80.8431.3¢-$42.06

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.08

Value

$51.69

PnL

-$12.39

Record

51%

623-608 (1231)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$23.21

Value

$24.76

PnL

+$1.55

Record

57%

13544-10382 (23926)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.