Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on October 30?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 63¢ · $576 held · ends Oct 30

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$575.82

Combined PnL

$41.95

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 62.5¢

-13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$334.05

Total Shares455

Combined PnL-$2.91

Yes1 trader

Total Value$241.77

Total Shares870

Combined PnL+$44.86

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 70.9¢	$241.29	$245.56	+$4.27	22% 291-1025 (1316)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 22.6¢	$196.91	$241.77	+$44.86	51% 609-591 (1200)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 74.3¢	$44.69	$43.69	-$1.21	59% 1692-1154 (2846)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 70¢	$37.8	$27	-$0.29	53% 6437-5635 (12072)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$40.77	$17.8	-$5.68	57% 13381-10228 (23609)

Istaroth

Invested

$241.29

Value

$245.56

PnL

+$4.27

Record

22%

291-1025 (1316)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$196.91

Value

$241.77

PnL

+$44.86

Record

51%

609-591 (1200)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$44.69

Value

$43.69

PnL

-$1.21

Record

59%

1692-1154 (2846)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$37.8

Value

$27

PnL

-$0.29

Record

53%

6437-5635 (12072)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$40.77

Value

$17.8

PnL

-$5.68

Record

57%

13381-10228 (23609)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.