Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on October 29?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 95¢ · $807 held · ended Oct 29

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$807.29

Combined PnL

$69.54

Smart Money Entry

68.4¢ → 94.5¢

+38% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$196.7

Total Shares715

Combined PnL+$49.41

No2 traders

Total Value$192.05

Total Shares252

Combined PnL+$20.12

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 71.3¢	$256.69	$251.02	-$3.33	22% 291-1025 (1316)
└ No leg	Noavg 71.3¢	$179.05	$185.76	+$6.68
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.8¢	$74.87	$65.26	-$10
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 20.6¢	$147.29	$196.7	+$49.41	47% 626-712 (1338)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 67.9¢	$161.46	$181.87	+$20.41	55% 340-274 (614)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 27.1¢	$161.85	$167.52	+$5.67	59% 1692-1154 (2846)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.1¢	$102.04	$97.76	-$4.28
└ No leg	Noavg 63.4¢	$59.81	$69.76	+$9.95
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 77¢	$11.83	$10.18	-$0.28	53% 6437-5635 (12072)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$256.69

Value

$251.02

PnL

-$3.33

Record

22%

291-1025 (1316)

Both legs:

No$179.0571.3¢+$6.68

Yes$74.8729.8¢-$10

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$147.29

Value

$196.7

PnL

+$49.41

Record

47%

626-712 (1338)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$161.46

Value

$181.87

PnL

+$20.41

Record

55%

340-274 (614)

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$161.85

Value

$167.52

PnL

+$5.67

Record

59%

1692-1154 (2846)

Both legs:

Yes$102.0427.1¢-$4.28

No$59.8163.4¢+$9.95

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$11.83

Value

$10.18

PnL

-$0.28

Record

53%

6437-5635 (12072)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.