Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on October 29?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 85¢ · $254 held · ends Oct 29

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$254.15

Combined PnL

$25.02

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$128.09

Total Shares125

Combined PnL+$20.03

Yes2 traders

Total Value$126.06

Total Shares671

Combined PnL+$4.99

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 77.2¢	$82.92	$102.88	+$19.96	50% 1684-1666 (3350)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.3¢	$99.94	$97.7	-$2.24	47% 600-687 (1287)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.5¢	$21.13	$28.36	+$7.23	60% 1629-1089 (2718)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$20.14	$19.99	-$0.15	25% 283-869 (1152)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 75.8¢	$5	$5.22	+$0.22	53% 6367-5579 (11946)

hello.67

Invested

$82.92

Value

$102.88

PnL

+$19.96

Record

50%

1684-1666 (3350)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.94

Value

$97.7

PnL

-$2.24

Record

47%

600-687 (1287)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.13

Value

$28.36

PnL

+$7.23

Record

60%

1629-1089 (2718)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.14

Value

$19.99

PnL

-$0.15

Record

25%

283-869 (1152)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$0.22

Record

53%

6367-5579 (11946)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.2%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.