Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on October 28?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 32¢ · $205 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$204.55
-$6.84
31.2¢ → 32¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 31.5¢ | $168.57 | $160.6 | -$7.97 | 46% 574-661 (1235) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $17.08 | $15.48 | -$0.34 | 29% 280-697 (977) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $14.49 | $14.99 | +$0.5 | 50% 1640-1625 (3265) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $6.67 | $7.36 | +$0.69 | 61% 1566-1014 (2580) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $5.84 | $6.12 | +$0.28 | 57% 13006-9921 (22927) |
Invested
$168.57
Value
$160.6
PnL
-$7.97
Record
46%
574-661 (1235)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$17.08
Value
$15.48
PnL
-$0.34
Record
29%
280-697 (977)
Invested
$14.49
Value
$14.99
PnL
+$0.5
Record
50%
1640-1625 (3265)
Invested
$6.67
Value
$7.36
PnL
+$0.69
Record
61%
1566-1014 (2580)
Invested
$5.84
Value
$6.12
PnL
+$0.28
Record
57%
13006-9921 (22927)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.