Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 27?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 43¢ · $661 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$661.31
$106.8
32¢ → 43¢
+34% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 31.2¢ | $264.26 | $359.41 | +$95.15 | 52% 561-524 (1085) |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 50.2¢ | $144.01 | $156 | +$11.99 | 61% 1529-967 (2496) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50.2¢ | $74.07 | $84.08 | +$10.01 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 41.2¢ | $68.91 | $71.92 | +$1.98 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 58.1¢ | $92.99 | $91.99 | -$1 | 53% 6235-5472 (11707) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $41.8 | $53.9 | +$12.65 | 55% 217-181 (398) |
Invested
$264.26
Value
$359.41
PnL
+$95.15
Record
52%
561-524 (1085)
Invested
$144.01
Value
$156
PnL
+$11.99
Record
61%
1529-967 (2496)
Both legs:
Invested
$92.99
Value
$91.99
PnL
-$1
Record
53%
6235-5472 (11707)
Invested
$41.8
Value
$53.9
PnL
+$12.65
Record
55%
217-181 (398)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.