Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 62-63°F on November 8?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 30¢ · $277 held · ended Nov 8

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$276.71

Combined PnL

$2.62

Smart Money Entry

31.1¢ → 30¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$199.42

Total Shares644

Combined PnL-$0.78

No4 traders

Total Value$77.28

Total Shares93

Combined PnL+$3.4

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 33.6¢	$124.77	$118.77	-$6	39% 900-1436 (2336)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$43.99	$48.86	+$4.87	53% 4150-3716 (7866)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 72.1¢	$48.91	$47.55	-$1.36	54% 10777-9308 (20085)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 28.7¢	$30.18	$30.51	+$0.33	26% 2319-6715 (9034)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 64.4¢	$28.98	$22.67	+$4.42	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 71¢	$3.8	$3.64	-$0.16	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 58¢	$2.93	$3.43	+$0.51	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.25	$1.28	+$0.02	38% 2430-3890 (6320)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$124.77

Value

$118.77

PnL

-$6

Record

39%

900-1436 (2336)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.99

Value

$48.86

PnL

+$4.87

Record

53%

4150-3716 (7866)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$48.91

Value

$47.55

PnL

-$1.36

Record

54%

10777-9308 (20085)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.18

Value

$30.51

PnL

+$0.33

Record

26%

2319-6715 (9034)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.98

Value

$22.67

PnL

+$4.42

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.64

PnL

-$0.16

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.93

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$0.51

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.02

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.