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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 60-61°F on November 8?

Resolved No. 46% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Yes 67%

Total Value

$37.69

Combined PnL

-$162.38

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$37.69

Total Shares38

Combined PnL+$7.53

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,058

Combined PnL-$169.9

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82.1¢	$29.8	$36.95	+$7.15	57% 24781-18350 (43131)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 49¢	$0.36	$0.74	+$0.38	46% 6186-7390 (13576)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 16.9¢	$123.87	—	-$130.44	21% 937-3529 (4466)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.6¢	$41.18	—	-$39.47	53% 5080-4437 (9517)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 65.8¢	—	—	+$0	43% 18536-24186 (42722)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.5¢	—	—	+$0	30% 2855-6557 (9412)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 56.1¢	—	—	+$0	35% 1158-2115 (3273)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.6¢	—	—	+$0	25% 2365-7040 (9405)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 39.6¢	—	—	+$0	22% 3414-11955 (15369)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	—	—	+$0	50% 9328-9390 (18718)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.8¢	—	—	+$0	55% 26028-21332 (47360)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 31.3¢	—	—	+$0	46% 6642-7775 (14417)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.7¢	—	—	+$0	13% 703-4662 (5365)

Invested

$29.8

Value

$36.95

PnL

+$7.15

Record

57%

24781-18350 (43131)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.74

PnL

+$0.38

Record

46%

6186-7390 (13576)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Invested

$123.87

Value

—

PnL

-$130.44

Record

21%

937-3529 (4466)

BilberryCTR<$100

Invested

$41.18

Value

—

PnL

-$39.47

Record

53%

5080-4437 (9517)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

18536-24186 (42722)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2855-6557 (9412)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

1158-2115 (3273)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

2365-7040 (9405)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

22%

3414-11955 (15369)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

9328-9390 (18718)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

26028-21332 (47360)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6642-7775 (14417)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

13%

703-4662 (5365)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x31bd580e...ee0c63

Slug

highest-temperature-in-austin-on-november-8-2026-60-61f

Traders in this Market

ghorrock

No — $36.95

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

No — $0.74

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes — $0

Bilberry

Yes — $0

Lucerys

No — $0

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Yes — $0

anothercoin

No — $0

hello.67

Yes — $0

luciebot

No — $0

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

No — $0

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