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NoYesYesYesYes
LucerysCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 55°F or below on November 8?
Resolved No. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 80%
Total Value
$100
Combined PnL
-$34.91
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 6 top traders (83%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$100
Total Shares100
Combined PnL+$0.1
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares385
Combined PnL-$35.01
No — 17%Yes — 83%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $100 | +$0.1 | 97% 59717-1869 (61586) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $19.69 | — | -$30.01 | 21% 937-3529 (4466) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.09 | — | -$4.09 | 46% 6186-7390 (13576) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | — | -$0.45 | 35% 1158-2115 (3273) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0 | — | -$0.45 | 22% 3414-11955 (15369) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 18536-24186 (42722) |
1D
1DVSBSTDInvested
$99.9
Value
$100
PnL
+$0.1
Record
97%
59717-1869 (61586)
0X
0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100Invested
$19.69
Value
—
PnL
-$30.01
Record
21%
937-3529 (4466)
0X
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100Invested
$4.09
Value
—
PnL
-$4.09
Record
46%
6186-7390 (13576)
AN
anothercoinCTR<$100Invested
$0.45
Value
—
PnL
-$0.45
Record
35%
1158-2115 (3273)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
—
PnL
-$0.45
Record
22%
3414-11955 (15369)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
18536-24186 (42722)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x1906633f...5d5f31
Slug
highest-temperature-in-austin-on-november-8-2026-55forbelow