Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on November 7?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 65¢ · $54 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$54.14
$4.92
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bilberry<$100 | Noavg 62.6¢ | $38.57 | $40.07 | +$3.47 | 53% 4144-3712 (7856) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 61.8¢ | $12.24 | $12.86 | +$1.35 | 32% 2247-4752 (6999) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 65.3¢ | $329.99 | $0.71 | -$0 | 38% 887-1421 (2308) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $0.39 | $0.49 | +$0.1 | 54% 10730-9241 (19971) |
Invested
$38.57
Value
$40.07
PnL
+$3.47
Record
53%
4144-3712 (7856)
Invested
$12.24
Value
$12.86
PnL
+$1.35
Record
32%
2247-4752 (6999)
Invested
$329.99
Value
$0.71
PnL
-$0
Record
38%
887-1421 (2308)
Invested
$0.39
Value
$0.49
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
10730-9241 (19971)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.