Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on November 5?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 81¢ · $381 held · ended Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$380.89
$129.58
34.8¢ → 80.5¢
+131% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Mature
32h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 27.9¢ | $114.71 | $271.08 | +$127.49 | 41% 838-1207 (2045) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 60.1¢ | $249.21 | $47.45 | -$6.79 | 13% 529-3428 (3957) |
 Roflan-ludoman<$100 | Yesavg 65.3¢ | $23.67 | $23.92 | +$0.25 | 62% 658-398 (1056) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 54.3¢ | $19.06 | $21.58 | +$2.52 | 54% 10589-9151 (19740) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 27.4¢ | $8.48 | $14.93 | +$6.45 | 58% 21213-15412 (36625) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Noavg 40.7¢ | $12.53 | $1.74 | -$0.34 | 44% 2299-2915 (5214) |
Invested
$114.71
Value
$271.08
PnL
+$127.49
Record
41%
838-1207 (2045)
IstarothInvested
$249.21
Value
$47.45
PnL
-$6.79
Record
13%
529-3428 (3957)
Roflan-ludoman<$100Invested
$23.67
Value
$23.92
PnL
+$0.25
Record
62%
658-398 (1056)
Invested
$19.06
Value
$21.58
PnL
+$2.52
Record
54%
10589-9151 (19740)
Invested
$8.48
Value
$14.93
PnL
+$6.45
Record
58%
21213-15412 (36625)
Invested
$12.53
Value
$1.74
PnL
-$0.34
Record
44%
2299-2915 (5214)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.