Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 56-57°F on November 16?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 68¢ · $596 held · ends Nov 16

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$595.75

Combined PnL

-$33.05

Smart Money Entry

78.7¢ → 68¢

-13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$433.59

Total Shares636

Combined PnL-$69.67

Yes2 traders

Total Value$162.17

Total Shares552

Combined PnL+$36.61

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 80.1¢	$294.59	$246.93	-$47.67	61% 1190-746 (1936)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 23.7¢	$122.28	$151.58	+$29.3	54% 1237-1050 (2287)
Haradwaith	Noavg 77.5¢	$146.71	$105.23	-$16.31	29% 293-715 (1008)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 76¢	$65.83	$61.48	-$4.35	71% 939-382 (1321)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.27	$10.59	+$7.31	53% 2343-2099 (4442)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79.7¢	$26.57	$8.89	-$1.05	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$13.05	$4.28	+$0.39	42% 783-1092 (1875)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 71.9¢	$3.67	$3.42	-$0.24	47% 881-992 (1873)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 75.7¢	$3.79	$3.36	-$0.43	13% 117-766 (883)

vibing123

Invested

$294.59

Value

$246.93

PnL

-$47.67

Record

61%

1190-746 (1936)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$122.28

Value

$151.58

PnL

+$29.3

Record

54%

1237-1050 (2287)

Haradwaith

Invested

$146.71

Value

$105.23

PnL

-$16.31

Record

29%

293-715 (1008)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$65.83

Value

$61.48

PnL

-$4.35

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.27

Value

$10.59

PnL

+$7.31

Record

53%

2343-2099 (4442)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.57

Value

$8.89

PnL

-$1.05

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$13.05

Value

$4.28

PnL

+$0.39

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.67

Value

$3.42

PnL

-$0.24

Record

47%

881-992 (1873)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$3.79

Value

$3.36

PnL

-$0.43

Record

13%

117-766 (883)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.62

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.