Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 52-53°F on November 16?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 12¢ · $259 held · ends Nov 16

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$259.24

Combined PnL

-$51.55

Smart Money Entry

23.5¢ → 11.6¢

-51% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$141.6

Total Shares828

Combined PnL-$52.17

No4 traders

Total Value$117.51

Total Shares134

Combined PnL+$0.62

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	Yesavg 23.9¢	$160.68	$116.93	-$43.76	61% 1190-746 (1936)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$77.83	$86.13	+$8.3	71% 939-382 (1321)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.5¢	$25.62	$18.2	-$7.43	65% 4367-2386 (6753)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74.5¢	$16.4	$17.42	+$1.02	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 76.3¢	$205.61	$9.68	-$9.04	54% 1237-1050 (2287)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 77.5¢	$3.95	$4.28	+$0.33	52% 936-867 (1803)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.3¢	$3.64	$2.42	-$1.21	42% 783-1092 (1875)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.4¢	$3.48	$2.31	-$1.17	14% 101-606 (707)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.9	$1.74	+$1.4	58% 859-610 (1469)

vibing123CTR

Yes

Invested

$160.68

Value

$116.93

PnL

-$43.76

Record

61%

1190-746 (1936)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$77.83

Value

$86.13

PnL

+$8.3

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.62

Value

$18.2

PnL

-$7.43

Record

65%

4367-2386 (6753)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.4

Value

$17.42

PnL

+$1.02

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$205.61

Value

$9.68

PnL

-$9.04

Record

54%

1237-1050 (2287)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.95

Value

$4.28

PnL

+$0.33

Record

52%

936-867 (1803)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.64

Value

$2.42

PnL

-$1.21

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.48

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$1.17

Record

14%

101-606 (707)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.9

Value

$1.74

PnL

+$1.4

Record

58%

859-610 (1469)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.2%

11.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$660.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

760.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.