Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 62-63°F on November 15?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 99¢ · $175 held · ended Nov 15

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$174.85

Combined PnL

$18.35

Smart Money Entry

84.2¢ → 98.8¢

+17% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$173.47

Total Shares175

Combined PnL+$25.89

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.38

Total Shares81

Combined PnL-$7.54

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123<$100	Noavg 78.1¢	$74.16	$93.96	+$19.8	61% 1202-764 (1966)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 82.9¢	$29.18	$33.66	+$5.53	29% 308-740 (1048)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$18.29	$18.28	-$0.01	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96¢	$10.58	$10.9	+$0.32	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$8.94	$9.15	+$0.21	28% 1103-2780 (3883)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$5	$5.02	+$0.02	47% 887-1007 (1894)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$2.5	$2.51	+$0.01	99% 1609-24 (1633)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$8.92	$1.38	-$7.54	42% 803-1100 (1903)

vibing123<$100

Invested

$74.16

Value

$93.96

PnL

+$19.8

Record

61%

1202-764 (1966)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$29.18

Value

$33.66

PnL

+$5.53

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$18.29

Value

$18.28

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.58

Value

$10.9

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$8.94

Value

$9.15

PnL

+$0.21

Record

28%

1103-2780 (3883)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.51

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.92

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$7.54

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.