Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 60-61°F on November 15?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 96¢ · $286 held · ended Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$286.34

Combined PnL

$17.27

Smart Money Entry

79.4¢ → 95.7¢

+21% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$261.77

Total Shares268

Combined PnL+$45.77

Yes3 traders

Total Value$24.57

Total Shares416

Combined PnL-$28.5

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 76.8¢	$168.88	$213.4	+$44.52	61% 1202-764 (1966)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97¢	$17.94	$17.61	-$0.32	49% 854-884 (1738)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.3¢	$33.27	$15.08	-$18.19	54% 1125-974 (2099)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77.5¢	$17.56	$9.46	+$0.43	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.4¢	$80.21	$9.42	-$10.29	42% 803-1100 (1903)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 90.9¢	$8.41	$8.97	+$0.56	30% 1175-2733 (3908)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 90.9¢	$4.61	$4.92	+$0.31	71% 950-388 (1338)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$4.85	$4.84	-$0.01	52% 909-844 (1753)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 86.4¢	$2.29	$2.57	+$0.28	58% 864-619 (1483)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.1	$0.07	-$0.02	29% 308-740 (1048)

vibing123

Invested

$168.88

Value

$213.4

PnL

+$44.52

Record

61%

1202-764 (1966)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$17.94

Value

$17.61

PnL

-$0.32

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.27

Value

$15.08

PnL

-$18.19

Record

54%

1125-974 (2099)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.56

Value

$9.46

PnL

+$0.43

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.21

Value

$9.42

PnL

-$10.29

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$8.41

Value

$8.97

PnL

+$0.56

Record

30%

1175-2733 (3908)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$4.61

Value

$4.92

PnL

+$0.31

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.84

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$2.29

Value

$2.57

PnL

+$0.28

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.02

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.9%

95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.