Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 58-59°F on November 15?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 84¢ · $561 held · ended Nov 15

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$561.05

Combined PnL

$26.94

Smart Money Entry

86.3¢ → 83.8¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$551.33

Total Shares612

Combined PnL+$23.66

Yes4 traders

Total Value$9.72

Total Shares49

Combined PnL+$3.28

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 86.6¢	$495.46	$517.09	+$21.63	61% 1202-764 (1966)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 90.4¢	$16.71	$15.64	-$1.07	50% 919-925 (1844)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 71¢	$6.57	$8.36	+$1.79	42% 1694-2332 (4026)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 74.2¢	$14.79	$5.94	+$1.15	42% 803-1100 (1903)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.2¢	$5.05	$5.04	+$1.87	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 81.5¢	$4.14	$4.3	+$0.16	60% 874-593 (1467)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.36	$3.12	+$1.76	35% 3905-7251 (11156)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.8¢	$1.82	$1.35	-$0.47	71% 950-388 (1338)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.1	$0.22	+$0.12	29% 308-740 (1048)

vibing123

Invested

$495.46

Value

$517.09

PnL

+$21.63

Record

61%

1202-764 (1966)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$16.71

Value

$15.64

PnL

-$1.07

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$6.57

Value

$8.36

PnL

+$1.79

Record

42%

1694-2332 (4026)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$14.79

Value

$5.94

PnL

+$1.15

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.05

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$1.87

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.14

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.16

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$3.12

PnL

+$1.76

Record

35%

3905-7251 (11156)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.47

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.12

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.4%

83.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.