Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 56-57°F on November 15?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 66¢ · $131 held · ended Nov 15

Yes34¢No66¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$131.15

Combined PnL

$31.34

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$44.64

Total Shares64

Combined PnL+$25.8

Yes4 traders

Total Value$12.41

Total Shares33

Combined PnL+$5.54

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 65.8¢	$74.18	$74.1	-$0.08	71% 954-392 (1346)
└ No leg	Noavg 65.8¢	$50.13	$53.75	+$3.62
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34.9¢	$24.05	$20.35	-$3.7
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 73¢	$14.05	$13.56	-$0.48	47% 1255-1396 (2651)
24 241532532432	Noavg 63.8¢	$241.15	$10.3	+$26.91	42% 808-1111 (1919)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 71¢	$7.28	$6.82	-$0.46	57% 851-641 (1492)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 70.7¢	$6.25	$6.23	-$0.02	58% 872-632 (1504)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$16.45	$5.97	-$0.83	53% 2316-2081 (4397)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.36	$4.35	+$2.99	35% 3914-7277 (11191)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 77¢	$3.83	$3.51	-$0.32	50% 932-930 (1862)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 71¢	$2.32	$2.31	-$0.02	52% 923-846 (1769)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 65¢	$1.73	$1.91	+$0.19	60% 888-604 (1492)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.75	$1.78	+$3.18	40% 2677-3972 (6649)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.1	$0.3	+$0.21	29% 315-771 (1086)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$74.18

Value

$74.1

PnL

-$0.08

Record

71%

954-392 (1346)

Both legs:

No$50.1365.8¢+$3.62

Yes$24.0534.9¢-$3.7

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$14.05

Value

$13.56

PnL

-$0.48

Record

47%

1255-1396 (2651)

241532532432

Invested

$241.15

Value

$10.3

PnL

+$26.91

Record

42%

808-1111 (1919)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$7.28

Value

$6.82

PnL

-$0.46

Record

57%

851-641 (1492)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$6.25

Value

$6.23

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

872-632 (1504)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.45

Value

$5.97

PnL

-$0.83

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$2.99

Record

35%

3914-7277 (11191)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.83

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$0.32

Record

50%

932-930 (1862)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.32

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

923-846 (1769)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$1.73

Value

$1.91

PnL

+$0.19

Record

60%

888-604 (1492)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.75

Value

$1.78

PnL

+$3.18

Record

40%

2677-3972 (6649)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.21

Record

29%

315-771 (1086)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.