Will the highest temperature in Austin be 55°F or below on November 15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 77¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$71.99

Smart Money Entry

83.2¢ → 77.2¢

-7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,691

Combined PnL-$99.67

Yes2 traders

Total Value$694.12

Total Shares3,100

Combined PnL+$171.66

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 83.7¢	$829.59	$765.99	-$63.6	53% 2324-2038 (4362)
VI vibing123CTR	Yesavg 16.4¢	$495.44	$676.93	+$181.49	62% 1161-712 (1873)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 82.6¢	$557.99	$522.4	-$35.59	54% 1118-956 (2074)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 21.8¢	$146.64	$17.19	-$9.83	42% 754-1062 (1816)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 79.2¢	$7.33	$7.14	-$0.19	38% 306-500 (806)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 77.3¢	$4.57	$4.57	+$0	71% 917-377 (1294)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 80.1¢	$64.73	$4.31	-$0.26	53% 2078-1852 (3930)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 77.4¢	$2.05	$2.05	-$0	52% 865-790 (1655)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 79.2¢	$1.31	$1.27	-$0.03	65% 4350-2373 (6723)

hello.67

Invested

$829.59

Value

$765.99

PnL

-$63.6

Record

53%

2324-2038 (4362)

vibing123CTR

Yes

Invested

$495.44

Value

$676.93

PnL

+$181.49

Record

62%

1161-712 (1873)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$557.99

Value

$522.4

PnL

-$35.59

Record

54%

1118-956 (2074)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$146.64

Value

$17.19

PnL

-$9.83

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$7.33

Value

$7.14

PnL

-$0.19

Record

38%

306-500 (806)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$4.57

Value

$4.57

PnL

+$0

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$64.73

Value

$4.31

PnL

-$0.26

Record

53%

2078-1852 (3930)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$1.31

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$0.03

Record

65%

4350-2373 (6723)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.1%

77.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.