Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on November 14?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 58¢ · $609 held · ended Nov 14

Yes42¢No58¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$609.28

Combined PnL

-$63.7

Smart Money Entry

71.4¢ → 57.6¢

-19% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 58%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$442.63

Total Shares777

Combined PnL-$96.93

Yes5 traders

Total Value$166.64

Total Shares558

Combined PnL+$33.24

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 73¢	$492.14	$377.44	-$114.7	62% 1138-702 (1840)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.8¢	$60.8	$72.4	+$11.6	41% 711-1031 (1742)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.5¢	$59.44	$71.62	+$12.18	54% 2307-1980 (4287)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 56.2¢	$29.51	$29.42	-$0.09	65% 4335-2355 (6690)
Haradwaith	Noavg 68.5¢	$120.68	$23.72	+$17.52	31% 204-459 (663)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.33	$10.82	+$7.49	54% 1228-1028 (2256)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.8¢	$17.82	$10.34	+$1.99	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$3.04	$3.29	+$0.25	49% 804-833 (1637)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 60.4¢	$3.02	$3.27	+$0.25	40% 243-368 (611)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 65.3¢	$3.34	$2.86	-$0.48	51% 854-817 (1671)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 59.7¢	$2.33	$2.63	+$0.3	46% 1143-1343 (2486)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.9¢	$1.5	$1.48	-$0.02	71% 902-361 (1263)

vibing123

Invested

$492.14

Value

$377.44

PnL

-$114.7

Record

62%

1138-702 (1840)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.8

Value

$72.4

PnL

+$11.6

Record

41%

711-1031 (1742)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.44

Value

$71.62

PnL

+$12.18

Record

54%

2307-1980 (4287)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$29.51

Value

$29.42

PnL

-$0.09

Record

65%

4335-2355 (6690)

Haradwaith

Invested

$120.68

Value

$23.72

PnL

+$17.52

Record

31%

204-459 (663)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.33

Value

$10.82

PnL

+$7.49

Record

54%

1228-1028 (2256)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.82

Value

$10.34

PnL

+$1.99

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.04

Value

$3.29

PnL

+$0.25

Record

49%

804-833 (1637)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$3.02

Value

$3.27

PnL

+$0.25

Record

40%

243-368 (611)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.34

Value

$2.86

PnL

-$0.48

Record

51%

854-817 (1671)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.33

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.3

Record

46%

1143-1343 (2486)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

71%

902-361 (1263)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 58%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.9%

57.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.