Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on November 14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 91¢ · $718 held · ended Nov 14

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$717.73

Combined PnL

$10.69

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 90.5¢

+26% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$534.71

Total Shares827

Combined PnL-$46.29

Yes2 traders

Total Value$183.02

Total Shares412

Combined PnL+$56.98

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 73.1¢	$321.55	$281.6	-$39.95	62% 1138-702 (1840)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 71.1¢	$262.1	$212.47	-$16.78	54% 1228-1028 (2256)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 27.4¢	$151.4	$177.22	+$56.78	41% 711-1031 (1742)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	$52.22	$20.92	+$9.21	54% 2307-1980 (4287)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 70.6¢	$14.77	$7.2	+$1.19	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$5.6	$5.8	+$0.2	14% 90-555 (645)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 67¢	$3.42	$3.63	+$0.2	61% 779-497 (1276)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.25	+$0	40% 243-368 (611)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.27	$3.14	-$0.13	57% 751-556 (1307)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 65¢	$2.53	$2.49	-$0.04	51% 854-817 (1671)

vibing123

Invested

$321.55

Value

$281.6

PnL

-$39.95

Record

62%

1138-702 (1840)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$262.1

Value

$212.47

PnL

-$16.78

Record

54%

1228-1028 (2256)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$151.4

Value

$177.22

PnL

+$56.78

Record

41%

711-1031 (1742)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$52.22

Value

$20.92

PnL

+$9.21

Record

54%

2307-1980 (4287)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.77

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$1.19

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

14%

90-555 (645)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.42

Value

$3.63

PnL

+$0.2

Record

61%

779-497 (1276)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

243-368 (611)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.27

Value

$3.14

PnL

-$0.13

Record

57%

751-556 (1307)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.53

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

854-817 (1671)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.