Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on November 13?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 80¢ · $973 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$973.26
$124.43
71.7¢ → 79.8¢
+11% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 70.6¢ | $621.06 | $688.9 | +$77.65 | 63% 2135-1236 (3371) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 66.6¢ | $117.22 | $95.08 | +$39.83 | 60% 1158-781 (1939) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 72.1¢ | $63.92 | $66.71 | +$6.92 | 35% 407-742 (1149) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $49.8 | $49.68 | -$0.12 | 47% 4818-5478 (10296) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 75.8¢ | $43.53 | $29.11 | +$3.79 | 53% 905-797 (1702) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $24.9 | $24.84 | -$0.06 | 29% 892-2174 (3066) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 81.1¢ | $15.29 | $15.01 | -$0.28 | 76% 662-214 (876) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36.1¢ | $7.22 | $3.92 | -$3.3 | 12% 36-262 (298) |
Invested
$621.06
Value
$688.9
PnL
+$77.65
Record
63%
2135-1236 (3371)
Invested
$117.22
Value
$95.08
PnL
+$39.83
Record
60%
1158-781 (1939)
Invested
$63.92
Value
$66.71
PnL
+$6.92
Record
35%
407-742 (1149)
balthazar<$100Invested
$49.8
Value
$49.68
PnL
-$0.12
Record
47%
4818-5478 (10296)
Invested
$43.53
Value
$29.11
PnL
+$3.79
Record
53%
905-797 (1702)
Invested
$24.9
Value
$24.84
PnL
-$0.06
Record
29%
892-2174 (3066)
Invested
$15.29
Value
$15.01
PnL
-$0.28
Record
76%
662-214 (876)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$7.22
Value
$3.92
PnL
-$3.3
Record
12%
36-262 (298)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.