Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on November 13?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 15¢ · $251 held · ends Nov 13

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$251.05

Combined PnL

-$57.91

Smart Money Entry

34.8¢ → 15¢

-57% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$129.95

Total Shares593

Combined PnL-$76.56

No6 traders

Total Value$121.09

Total Shares136

Combined PnL+$18.65

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 34.4¢	$184.52	$118.16	-$66.36	59% 1163-798 (1961)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 61¢	$36.6	$51.9	+$15.3	26% 118-337 (455)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 61.4¢	$25.24	$22.36	-$2.88	76% 675-216 (891)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 66.2¢	$14.56	$19.01	+$4.45	65% 4172-2205 (6377)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 83¢	$18.7	$17.75	-$0.95	35% 414-754 (1168)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$20.9	$10.69	-$10.21	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 53¢	$4.55	$5.75	+$1.2	53% 922-814 (1736)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 56¢	$2.8	$4.33	+$1.53	47% 544-625 (1169)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$1.1	$1.1	+$0	62% 473-292 (765)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$184.52

Value

$118.16

PnL

-$66.36

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$36.6

Value

$51.9

PnL

+$15.3

Record

26%

118-337 (455)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$25.24

Value

$22.36

PnL

-$2.88

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$14.56

Value

$19.01

PnL

+$4.45

Record

65%

4172-2205 (6377)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$18.7

Value

$17.75

PnL

-$0.95

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.9

Value

$10.69

PnL

-$10.21

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.55

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$1.2

Record

53%

922-814 (1736)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$4.33

PnL

+$1.53

Record

47%

544-625 (1169)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

473-292 (765)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.7%

15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$499.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

599.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.