Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on November 12?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 100¢ · $125 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 14%
$124.61
-$67.34
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $119.87 | $119.1 | -$0.77 | 99% 398-3 (401) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $48.74 | $4.02 | -$44.72 | 59% 1032-714 (1746) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $7.23 | $0.6 | -$6.63 | 51% 4781-4575 (9356) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $79.89 | $0.45 | -$11.26 | 40% 1466-2159 (3625) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.83 | $0.23 | -$2.6 | 39% 3421-5409 (8830) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.55 | $0.13 | -$1.42 | 47% 484-554 (1038) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.02 | $0.08 | +$0.06 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
Invested
$119.87
Value
$119.1
PnL
-$0.77
Record
99%
398-3 (401)
Invested
$48.74
Value
$4.02
PnL
-$44.72
Record
59%
1032-714 (1746)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$7.23
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$6.63
Record
51%
4781-4575 (9356)
Invested
$79.89
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$11.26
Record
40%
1466-2159 (3625)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$2.83
Value
$0.23
PnL
-$2.6
Record
39%
3421-5409 (8830)
Invested
$1.55
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$1.42
Record
47%
484-554 (1038)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.08
PnL
+$0.06
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.