Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 85¢ · $844 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$844.07
$140.91
71.9¢ → 85¢
+18% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 70¢ | $317.53 | $385.33 | +$67.8 | 68% 2062-950 (3012) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 69¢ | $198.72 | $253.44 | +$54.72 | 31% 264-600 (864) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.5¢ | $46.35 | $77.66 | +$31.31 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 80.7¢ | $64.6 | $59.2 | -$5.4 | 51% 4609-4510 (9119) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 82.4¢ | $61.8 | $55.5 | -$6.3 | 40% 1447-2158 (3605) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 82.6¢ | $20.65 | $12.94 | -$1.22 | 54% 512-439 (951) |
Invested
$317.53
Value
$385.33
PnL
+$67.8
Record
68%
2062-950 (3012)
Invested
$198.72
Value
$253.44
PnL
+$54.72
Record
31%
264-600 (864)
Invested
$46.35
Value
$77.66
PnL
+$31.31
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
balthazar<$100Invested
$64.6
Value
$59.2
PnL
-$5.4
Record
51%
4609-4510 (9119)
Invested
$61.8
Value
$55.5
PnL
-$6.3
Record
40%
1447-2158 (3605)
Invested
$20.65
Value
$12.94
PnL
-$1.22
Record
54%
512-439 (951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.