Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on November 12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 45¢ · $503 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$503.2
$275.36
41.3¢ → 44.5¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-22 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $48.74 | $305.6 | +$256.86 | 59% 1032-714 (1746) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 58.2¢ | $66.48 | $68.23 | +$1.75 | 77% 632-192 (824) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $62.89 | $66.7 | +$3.81 | 68% 2115-1000 (3115) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 40.9¢ | $47.09 | $51.18 | +$4.09 | 34% 370-706 (1076) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.5¢ | $8.48 | $9.38 | +$0.9 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Noavg 43.5¢ | $9.3 | $1.79 | +$7.95 | 47% 484-554 (1038) |
Invested
$48.74
Value
$305.6
PnL
+$256.86
Record
59%
1032-714 (1746)
Invested
$66.48
Value
$68.23
PnL
+$1.75
Record
77%
632-192 (824)
Invested
$62.89
Value
$66.7
PnL
+$3.81
Record
68%
2115-1000 (3115)
Invested
$47.09
Value
$51.18
PnL
+$4.09
Record
34%
370-706 (1076)
Invested
$8.48
Value
$9.38
PnL
+$0.9
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
Invested
$9.3
Value
$1.79
PnL
+$7.95
Record
47%
484-554 (1038)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.