Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on November 12?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 85¢ · $819 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$818.86
$97.46
77.5¢ → 85.2¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 78.4¢ | $643.08 | $723.8 | +$80.72 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 67.9¢ | $50.92 | $69.34 | +$18.42 | 13% 55-372 (427) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.2¢ | $12.27 | $11.78 | -$0.49 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 82.5¢ | $19.11 | $11.31 | -$1.66 | 54% 493-423 (916) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $2.16 | $2.63 | +$0.47 | 30% 258-593 (851) |
Invested
$643.08
Value
$723.8
PnL
+$80.72
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$50.92
Value
$69.34
PnL
+$18.42
Record
13%
55-372 (427)
Invested
$12.27
Value
$11.78
PnL
-$0.49
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
Invested
$19.11
Value
$11.31
PnL
-$1.66
Record
54%
493-423 (916)
Invested
$2.16
Value
$2.63
PnL
+$0.47
Record
30%
258-593 (851)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.