Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on November 12?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 100¢ · $147 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$147.21
-$58.55
99.5¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $104.54 | $104.84 | +$0.3 | 26% 116-337 (453) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.82 | $29.96 | +$0.14 | 26% 868-2503 (3371) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $11.06 | $11.12 | +$0.06 | 58% 456-326 (782) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $48.74 | $0.8 | -$47.94 | 59% 1032-732 (1764) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $23.64 | $0.09 | -$7.09 | 47% 4803-5424 (10227) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $1.36 | $0.04 | -$1.32 | 53% 866-756 (1622) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $14.4 | $0.03 | -$2.71 | 37% 3439-5885 (9324) |
Invested
$104.54
Value
$104.84
PnL
+$0.3
Record
26%
116-337 (453)
Invested
$29.82
Value
$29.96
PnL
+$0.14
Record
26%
868-2503 (3371)
Invested
$11.06
Value
$11.12
PnL
+$0.06
Record
58%
456-326 (782)
Invested
$48.74
Value
$0.8
PnL
-$47.94
Record
59%
1032-732 (1764)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$23.64
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$7.09
Record
47%
4803-5424 (10227)
Invested
$1.36
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$1.32
Record
53%
866-756 (1622)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$14.4
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$2.71
Record
37%
3439-5885 (9324)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.