Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 67°F or below on November 12?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $113 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 86%
$112.65
-$58.68
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $98.1 | -$1.8 | 99% 398-3 (401) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $48.74 | $10.19 | -$38.55 | 59% 1032-714 (1746) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $7.23 | $1.51 | -$5.72 | 51% 4781-4575 (9356) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $79.03 | $1.14 | -$9.71 | 40% 1466-2159 (3625) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $0.24 | $0.8 | +$0.56 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.83 | $0.59 | -$2.24 | 39% 3421-5409 (8830) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.55 | $0.32 | -$1.22 | 47% 484-554 (1038) |
Invested
$99.9
Value
$98.1
PnL
-$1.8
Record
99%
398-3 (401)
Invested
$48.74
Value
$10.19
PnL
-$38.55
Record
59%
1032-714 (1746)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$7.23
Value
$1.51
PnL
-$5.72
Record
51%
4781-4575 (9356)
Invested
$79.03
Value
$1.14
PnL
-$9.71
Record
40%
1466-2159 (3625)
Invested
$0.24
Value
$0.8
PnL
+$0.56
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$2.83
Value
$0.59
PnL
-$2.24
Record
39%
3421-5409 (8830)
Invested
$1.55
Value
$0.32
PnL
-$1.22
Record
47%
484-554 (1038)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.