Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $89 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$89.03
$3.11
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $38.95 | $40.18 | +$1.23 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $19.6 | $19.6 | +$0 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 83.1¢ | $17.22 | $12.27 | +$1.49 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $8.9 | $7.89 | -$1.02 | 31% 285-621 (906) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $5.19 | $6.6 | +$1.42 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $2.5 | $2.49 | -$0.01 | 99% 268-2 (270) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$38.95
Value
$40.18
PnL
+$1.23
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$19.6
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$17.22
Value
$12.27
PnL
+$1.49
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$8.9
Value
$7.89
PnL
-$1.02
Record
31%
285-621 (906)
balthazar<$100Invested
$5.19
Value
$6.6
PnL
+$1.42
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.49
PnL
-$0.01
Record
99%
268-2 (270)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.