Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 72¢ · $345 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$344.58
$4.49
71.9¢ → 71.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 72.4¢ | $275.27 | $275.5 | +$0.23 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.4¢ | $50.9 | $52.85 | +$1.95 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $6.34 | $7.58 | +$1.24 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $3.9 | $4.84 | +$0.94 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $3.68 | $3.81 | +$0.13 | 85% 441-76 (517) |
Invested
$275.27
Value
$275.5
PnL
+$0.23
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
Invested
$50.9
Value
$52.85
PnL
+$1.95
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$6.34
Value
$7.58
PnL
+$1.24
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
balthazar<$100Invested
$3.9
Value
$4.84
PnL
+$0.94
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$3.68
Value
$3.81
PnL
+$0.13
Record
85%
441-76 (517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.