Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 55¢ · $220 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$220.5
$10.63
57.1¢ → 54.5¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 58¢ | $100.33 | $103.72 | +$3.39 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $66.01 | $70.9 | +$4.89 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $23.37 | $24.6 | +$1.23 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $19.37 | $20.38 | +$1.01 | 81% 525-121 (646) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $0.79 | $0.89 | +$0.1 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
Invested
$100.33
Value
$103.72
PnL
+$3.39
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
Invested
$66.01
Value
$70.9
PnL
+$4.89
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$23.37
Value
$24.6
PnL
+$1.23
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$19.37
Value
$20.38
PnL
+$1.01
Record
81%
525-121 (646)
Invested
$0.79
Value
$0.89
PnL
+$0.1
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.