Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on November 11?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 24¢ · $145 held · ends Nov 11

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$144.89

Combined PnL

$9.86

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$98.89

Total Shares437

Combined PnL+$10.93

No3 traders

Total Value$46

Total Shares55

Combined PnL-$1.07

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.5¢	$49.46	$54.78	+$5.32	28% 214-553 (767)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.6¢	$35.46	$40.12	+$4.66	69% 2060-946 (3006)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 82¢	$33.62	$32.39	-$1.23	36% 3038-5350 (8388)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 78.1¢	$7.26	$7.34	+$0.08	83% 489-98 (587)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84¢	$13.39	$6.27	+$0.08	53% 346-302 (648)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$3.04	$3.99	+$0.95	59% 1019-705 (1724)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.46

Value

$54.78

PnL

+$5.32

Record

28%

214-553 (767)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.46

Value

$40.12

PnL

+$4.66

Record

69%

2060-946 (3006)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$33.62

Value

$32.39

PnL

-$1.23

Record

36%

3038-5350 (8388)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$7.26

Value

$7.34

PnL

+$0.08

Record

83%

489-98 (587)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$13.39

Value

$6.27

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

346-302 (648)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.04

Value

$3.99

PnL

+$0.95

Record

59%

1019-705 (1724)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.