Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on November 11?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 6.1¢ · $93 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$93.2
$1.57
Research grade
AvoidYes at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $40.03 | $39.44 | -$0.58 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.4¢ | $26.08 | $26.08 | +$0 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $17.05 | $18.67 | +$1.62 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $6.67 | $6.48 | -$0.19 | 50% 4584-4495 (9079) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $11.95 | $2.53 | +$0.73 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$40.03
Value
$39.44
PnL
-$0.58
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$26.08
Value
$26.08
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$17.05
Value
$18.67
PnL
+$1.62
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
balthazar<$100Invested
$6.67
Value
$6.48
PnL
-$0.19
Record
50%
4584-4495 (9079)
Invested
$11.95
Value
$2.53
PnL
+$0.73
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.