Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on November 10?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $61 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$61.42
$0.5
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $29.56 | $29.97 | +$0.41 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.98 | $9.98 | -$0 | 32% 205-443 (648) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $7.89 | $7.99 | +$0.1 | 38% 1193-1980 (3173) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $4.99 | -$0 | 38% 173-282 (455) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $4.99 | -$0 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $3.5 | $3.5 | +$0 | 100% 95-0 (95) |
Invested
$29.56
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.41
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
Invested
$9.98
Value
$9.98
PnL
-$0
Record
32%
205-443 (648)
Invested
$7.89
Value
$7.99
PnL
+$0.1
Record
38%
1193-1980 (3173)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.99
PnL
-$0
Record
38%
173-282 (455)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.99
PnL
-$0
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$0
Record
100%
95-0 (95)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.