Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on November 10?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 95¢ · $56 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$55.85
-$2.46
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $29.28 | $27.3 | -$1.97 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $20.56 | $20.02 | -$0.54 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $7.81 | $7.28 | -$0.53 | 4% 17-463 (480) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.29 | $0.88 | +$0.58 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $0.37 | $0.37 | +$0 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Invested
$29.28
Value
$27.3
PnL
-$1.97
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$20.56
Value
$20.02
PnL
-$0.54
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$7.81
Value
$7.28
PnL
-$0.53
Record
4%
17-463 (480)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.29
Value
$0.88
PnL
+$0.58
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
Invested
$0.37
Value
$0.37
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.