Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on November 10?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 88¢ · $85 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$85
-$5.47
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.8¢ | $35.38 | $31.45 | -$3.93 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $27 | $24.45 | -$2.55 | 32% 811-1697 (2508) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $11.75 | $11.82 | +$0.07 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $9.31 | $10.55 | +$1.53 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $7.2 | $6.52 | -$0.68 | 4% 17-463 (480) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $0.13 | $0.21 | +$0.09 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
Invested
$35.38
Value
$31.45
PnL
-$3.93
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$27
Value
$24.45
PnL
-$2.55
Record
32%
811-1697 (2508)
Invested
$11.75
Value
$11.82
PnL
+$0.07
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Invested
$9.31
Value
$10.55
PnL
+$1.53
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$6.52
PnL
-$0.68
Record
4%
17-463 (480)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.13
Value
$0.21
PnL
+$0.09
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.