Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on November 10?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 71¢ · $229 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$228.55
$14
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 61.9¢ | $133.28 | $143.27 | +$9.99 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 61.9¢ | $76.73 | $85.56 | +$8.83 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28.4¢ | $56.55 | $57.71 | +$1.16 | |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 65.7¢ | $25.76 | $26.22 | +$0.46 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 57.9¢ | $43.87 | $23.94 | +$5.97 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 50.7¢ | $16.61 | $22.59 | +$5.97 | 6% 18-276 (294) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $7.01 | $7.01 | +$0 | 2% 12-662 (674) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $3.92 | $5.52 | +$1.6 | 4% 17-463 (480) |
Invested
$133.28
Value
$143.27
PnL
+$9.99
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Both legs:
Invested
$25.76
Value
$26.22
PnL
+$0.46
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Invested
$43.87
Value
$23.94
PnL
+$5.97
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$16.61
Value
$22.59
PnL
+$5.97
Record
6%
18-276 (294)
Invested
$7.01
Value
$7.01
PnL
+$0
Record
2%
12-662 (674)
Invested
$3.92
Value
$5.52
PnL
+$1.6
Record
4%
17-463 (480)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.